Future thrills

The US is grappling with its budget – there will  be massive cuts in military expenses, the health insurance will cost and must be taken into the budget, and creation of jobs is not moving briskly. An election is coming, so the big issue short term is winning there.

In China a new leadership will come onstage late this year and early next year. The big changes are rolling : massive urbanization, move into industry, developing services and bringing along everybody in the process. There is talk about a welfare state for all based on elements from tested models from the Nordic countries. This could be a make or break development, with obvious difficulties when done on such a large scale.

Chinese military spending is going up fast. SIPRI states that it is now probably about US $ 160 billion, but that it possibly will overtake the US in about 25 years time.

The positioning in the Asia region continues with both China and US jockeying for friends and relations and resources. The Chinese must match the US military presence in the area at first, and possibly in the rest of the world later. The South China Sea developments are of particular interest – many nations are involved, many interests are played out like oil, fisheries, other resources and also the question of security. US relative strength is going down, and China will be a different player in a few years time.

So everybody is thinking out their own strategy for the coming change. No doubt the new centre of power politics will be in this area. So called global security is in play and a rebalancing will be seen.

Most important however will be the inner workings of the Chinese state. There are many comments in the Western press about intellectual freedom. Artists and dissidents have been harassed, the police are controlling citizens and politicians as well, Chinese internal security is of great interest in the West, and speculation about the forces, the realities of it all is being given wide publicity.

So is a welfare state being pondered – or perhaps already in the works? This could be a hugely important issue, and determine the development of the Chinese status in the world. In here we also have factors like social structure, economic models, private freedom. In a good state you should be able to say what you think, do what you want to do?

The cohesion of Chinese society is another aspect. Moving in the direction of 1 – 99 is surely no use!

Welfare plans are probably now being laid, health and social security for all, trade unions with a job to do and being allowed to do it. The election system, local, central has been under debate, especially in Hong Kong where changes are expected.

Transparent political processes are part of it all in the long run too, acceptable conditions for artists, writers, intellectuals, acceptable working conditions, acceptable procedures for strikes and incidents, economic equality and equality between the sexes…..

There surely are many things to consider. The Chinese will surely move along nicely, with some ruffled  feathers maybe, but the continued existence and good development of the Chinese state is not in jeopardy. The future of the US as we know it is much more difficult to assess.

Many nations are coming up, the others are staying put – or relatively speaking going down?

A historic change is taking place in the world, evolving not so slowly, and the US is obviously feeling the heat. It is seeking out what it thinks is the biggest contender for supremacy in the world, and making all sorts of movements and noise to make sure there is or will be a conflict stewing or brewing. The chosen contender is China – the biggest nation population-wise. The other big one India is for the moment left out.

US dominance, the well-known policeman of the world, is no longer so certain. This is not due to great incidents or situations, but China, and also many other nations like India, Brazil, some of the Eastern Europeans, even African nations are improving the lot of their populations day by day. Things are going well for them. The US is doing fairly well also – much the same as it has done for some time, but elements of crisis have been seen.

The US is 5% of the world by inhabitants, China and India are about 20% each. The force of the numbers is changing the world.

Economically the US is disproportionately big, but others are finding their place. China is probably already the biggest economy in the world. It is easy to se that one day the Chinese economy will be much bigger than the US – there is no reason to doubt that. What about twice as big in 50 years time?

A lot of focus is now put on China by the West, even if India is practically the same size. We can say that China has been chosen as the big adversary of the US on the world stage. So the West is playing along with the US in this build up, the media are fully coordinated and blasting away: arms build up, human rights weaknesses, exchange accusations, demography speculations, political unrest. Dissidents are getting a lot of attention and messrs Wei, Li, Chen and others are meticulously followed by the foreign press (where do they get all this information in a country that is so strongly censored?). Terrible stories are told, some of it is possibly true, some are possibly fabrications by journalists or other capable writers.

So be careful what you believe – check it out for yourself if you can or be soundly sceptical.

Positioning is taking place: The US is playing down NATO, playing up their contacts in Asia and near. The Eastern Strategy of the US is unfolding – and amazing stuff it is. Vietnam, Australia, the Philipines, S. Korea, Taiwan are now all dear friends, US vessels are cruising around in the South China Sea – far away from home. There are planes and surely more, including naval exercises.

It is all rather sad and primitive – it is not human culture at its very best. A game of military power is staged with the US clearly challenging China. The US military budget is huge – about US $ 700 billion with China weighing in at about US $ 60 billion (2008 figures The Economist The world in figures).

We all have to sit watching this ritual unfolding – the manysplendoured forces of the US are let loose. Let us hope there will be no incidents wrecking havoc in the world.

But maybe this is all about appearances only? What is that is so important for the US to prove? It surely is not about human wellbeing? Is it about US thoughts of empire – 5% of the worlds people dominating the other 95 %?

The US is a construction that is about 300 years old, being dominant about the last 60 years. China has been going for many thousands of years, maybe more than 5 thousands, and the US is surely not going to change that?

Living is not about competition where you either win or lose. It is much easier than that. It is about understanding yourself, understanding others, helping all find sensible ways – cooperating, sharing, having fun.

So to the US – stop your relentless maCHINAtions, have fun. Please disassemble your military machine before there is an accident – possibly on a world scale. Remember what almost happened in Cuba? And think also about how much cheaper it is to be peaceful – you can easily save a billion a day. What you want to do in the world you should do in your own backyard.

Let us hope China can be patient with the US – it is such an immature nation, so young.

The US is a young nation, it has been the leader on the world stage for about 60 years. Now how long will this last?

The future of the US nation should be considered, to prepare for what can possibly happen in that ambitious and increasingly stratified country.

The US has been under an official State of National Emergency since Sept 14, 2001 – a state that President Obama last year extended to Sept 14, 2012. The war against terrorism has been going on since then, and is expected to continue. What they have is in effect a martial law situation.

The executive order signed by Obama March 16, 2012, now authorizes widespread federal (and often military) control and manipulation of the national economy and resources “under both emergency and non-emergency conditions” as well as the right to install “government owned equipment” in private industrial facilities.

The US has for many decades now been a warring country, is leaving IRAQ, warring in Afghanistan, preparing for confrontation with Iran, having a military presence all over the world, including 6 big cruisers each with at least 5000 men, about 90 planes and lots of other arms and munitions. The costs of this is hellish, and is carried by US taxpayers.

The US is running the Guantánamo Bay camp in violation of international law. It has been there since 1903. The camp is supposed to have been closed down, but the arrangement goes on. The prisoners are held there indefinitely without charge or trial.

There is a deficit budget in the US, unemployment is high at 8.3%, the economic differences in the country are very high as referenced by the 1% and 99% debate, the military expenses are high, the costs of empire are high, there are numerous industry problems surfacing especially within resources and energy supply.

Many parts of the country are, however, doing well.

There is widespread speculation concerning conspiracy theories in the US about what is going on. Lately there has been reports of FEMA camps being built – concentration camps – in five places and already being set up to be ready.

Militia groups are said to be working in the country with the express intention of safeguarding themselves against happenings, including government action of any kind. Articles about nonviolent civilian defence groups making it difficult for the government to rule have been published.

The legal and formalistic aspects are debated, but more important is what will happen in the near future. The pessimists say the groundwork for a totalitarian state is in place.  Senator Ron Paul is very harsh in his description. The major media are very quiet about this.

Reasonable precautions and preparations should be taken for defense and emergency conditions, preparation of decentralized energy and industrial capacity.

We should ponder the implications for the economy, for democracy and liberty, for international relations like helping friendly dictators or organizing wars against countries who control “strategic materials” that the US want, for the military industrial complex, for the prospects for the nation in the near future.

The President now has widespread power that has been compared to what Hitler had in Germany. Hitler also instigated acts of terror – he burnt the Reichstag – and blamed it on the Communists . Will similar happenings and accusations be produced here? Hitler also had an enabling act allowing him to use government resources like the military according to his wishes – the general laws of the nation being overruled.

The world of Homeland Security, war on terrorism, martial law, arrest by the army, indefinite detention without charge or trial is theoretically possible now.

There is also the possibility of a big spin being played out – say the conspiracy theorists – a situation being created – just like Hitler did. And what did Hitler do after that?

EXAMPLES:
“The president has the power to require acceptance and priority performance of contracts or orders (other than contracts of employment) to promote the national defense over performance of any other contracts or orders, and to allocate materials, services, and facilities as deemed necessary or appropriate to promote the national defense…under both emergency and non-emergency conditions” (Section 201a and b)”

“The president has the power, through his cabinet secretaries, to control the general distribution of any material (including applicable services) in the civilian market.” (Section 201e)

“The Secretary of Defense, and the Secretary of the Interior…are each delegated the authority of the President… to encourage the exploration, development, and mining of strategic and critical materials and other materials.” (Section 306)

“There is established in the executive branch a National Defense Executive Reserve (NDER) composed of persons of recognized expertise from various segments of the private sector and from Government (except full time Federal employees) for training for employment in executive positions in the Federal Government in the event of a national defense emergency. The head of an agency may activate an NDER unit, in whole or in part, upon the written determination of the Secretary of Homeland Security that an emergency affecting the national defense exists and that the activation of the unit is necessary to carry out the emergency program functions of the agency.”  (Section 501a&e)

This definitely does not seem good! The land of “We the people” is going where?

See Tom Atlee

There are changes afoot in world trade – the resources, the products of industry and agriculture, the services – as more and more players are realizing what the present system is about: The total domination by the western world in all matters.

The globalization debate is also in there as well as economic theory and practice. The old masters of the world are being overtaken by new entrants. The western world led by the US is not going to push more things through as other nations like the BRICS and more are starting to find their voice.

The case of the the rare earths is illustrative. China has much of the world’s resources of these 17 specialties – Rare Earth Elements – and we have had to buy them there. China now needs more and more of the stuff for themselves and have put restrictions on exports. So there is a case being mounted with the WTO – give us the stuff or we will force you. The outcome is clear – China has it and has no obligation to hand it out to others. So the solution to this little matter is to find more of the stuff elsewhere.

Many other issues are surfacing – industrial production, agriculture and jobs suffer in many Western countries. They have been trying to borrow their way out of it, and the US and EU are now trying to use quantitative easing to find their way back to health. Currency wars are looming as the rates of exchange are pegged too high or too low. There are always two sides to a currency, the reserve currencies are important references, and here there are changes coming. These processes are slow, almost imperceptible, glacierlike.

The Chinese are building an international presence not only in the South China Sea, but in Africa where they now are the biggest lender, they are upping their military presence, seeking new transport routes in northern waters – including building new icebreakers, making deals about resources all over. Very busy they are fostering the welfare of their own people.

The question of globalization may be up for a new debate as well. This is based on the mantra of free trade, comparative advantage running its course, the big players with their big finances having free access to all markets. A grand system of deals has been made over the years, domination have been allowed to become the norm, the old capitalist ideas of equal players competing under equal conditions have been allowed to lapse and become a monster. Tariffs, quotas, subsidies are part of the picture. It is all very complex, some would say incoherent.

The intended effect of making the cake bigger has been achieved in many areas, but sadly only to the benefit of some – there are still too many that are not sharing.

The old saying of being master in your own house is coming back. Too much outside influence, even downright outside economic and/or political government, is not desirable and should be avoided.

Producing everything on a large scale in faraway places make a jumble of many local economies – the jobs disappear, socially rich societies crumble, diversity disappears, cultures wither, the reason for being is lost.

The ethics is coming up too – see the problems of Nike, Apple and all the others – using factories with a substandard wages and working conditions. Large scale agriculture that is not sustainable is also part of the picture.

The economic theory must be revised – it is just a pretty picture missing out on several counts – especially on the sustainability bit, the culture, the cost to society, the management of your own destiny.

The fight over resources is increasing too, new thinking is needed, the concept of balanced trade have come up.

The beneficiaries of the present system is clearly many producers and many consumers, but the effects on the rest of the roles we have in society is not acceptable – out of jobs, being ruled by outside forces is not what people want or should have. The plethora of cheap goods is a bonus, but nothing worthwhile in the long run. The bad taste of coercion, colonialism or imperialism lingers.

The emergence of new nations is good. We must not, however, let there be new masters in place of the old – the aim must be a more broadly participative, balanced, reasonable world.

So the new thinking has to start about the practice of the new ethics of fairness, balance, sustainability, about local governance and responsibility for your own destiny.

This is heavy stuff – there are many forces against – but fairness will be the norm one day. Surely.