The Chinese going forward – with the rest of the world

The US is grappling with its budget – there will  be massive cuts in military expenses, the health insurance will cost and must be taken into the budget, and creation of jobs is not moving briskly. An election is coming, so the big issue short term is winning there.

In China a new leadership will come onstage late this year and early next year. The big changes are rolling : massive urbanization, move into industry, developing services and bringing along everybody in the process. There is talk about a welfare state for all based on elements from tested models from the Nordic countries. This could be a make or break development, with obvious difficulties when done on such a large scale.

Chinese military spending is going up fast. SIPRI states that it is now probably about US $ 160 billion, but that it possibly will overtake the US in about 25 years time.

The positioning in the Asia region continues with both China and US jockeying for friends and relations and resources. The Chinese must match the US military presence in the area at first, and possibly in the rest of the world later. The South China Sea developments are of particular interest – many nations are involved, many interests are played out like oil, fisheries, other resources and also the question of security. US relative strength is going down, and China will be a different player in a few years time.

So everybody is thinking out their own strategy for the coming change. No doubt the new centre of power politics will be in this area. So called global security is in play and a rebalancing will be seen.

Most important however will be the inner workings of the Chinese state. There are many comments in the Western press about intellectual freedom. Artists and dissidents have been harassed, the police are controlling citizens and politicians as well, Chinese internal security is of great interest in the West, and speculation about the forces, the realities of it all is being given wide publicity.

So is a welfare state being pondered – or perhaps already in the works? This could be a hugely important issue, and determine the development of the Chinese status in the world. In here we also have factors like social structure, economic models, private freedom. In a good state you should be able to say what you think, do what you want to do?

The cohesion of Chinese society is another aspect. Moving in the direction of 1 – 99 is surely no use!

Welfare plans are probably now being laid, health and social security for all, trade unions with a job to do and being allowed to do it. The election system, local, central has been under debate, especially in Hong Kong where changes are expected.

Transparent political processes are part of it all in the long run too, acceptable conditions for artists, writers, intellectuals, acceptable working conditions, acceptable procedures for strikes and incidents, economic equality and equality between the sexes…..

There surely are many things to consider. The Chinese will surely move along nicely, with some ruffled  feathers maybe, but the continued existence and good development of the Chinese state is not in jeopardy. The future of the US as we know it is much more difficult to assess.

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2 Responses to “The Chinese going forward – with the rest of the world”

  1. arturo says:

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