Posts Tagged ‘peak oil’

Peak oil coinciding with the real action in renewables?

Sunday, November 22nd, 2009

IEA has made a new prognosis for energy use, investment, production for the years up to 2030. Fossil fuel will dominate, but some present sources are reducing output fast. According to “Scenario 450″ renewables will not be a big player in this period, rising from 6% to 12% of consumption.

New fossil capacity is required of the size of 4 times today`s Russian production.There seems to be uncertainty if this indeed is possible.

The concept of peak oil has been advanced again, and uncertainty is still great. Some oil nations are seeing hard changes coming! Must we prepare for reduced fossil production before 2020 and step up renewables production? (Wikipedia: Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production enters terminal decline)

The estimates for undiscovered conventional oil and gas are being checked and recalculated, e.g. by US Geological Survey using advanced Monte Carlo models.

As we know there are also many “substandard” oil presences – shale, tar, hidden by salt etc. There are also political disagreements looming, especially in the North and in the China Sea.

It would be wise to follow up on this.