Posts Tagged ‘intradiscipline’

Climate models – evolving.

Tuesday, November 10th, 2009

Climate modeling is an evolving part of science. It is extremely complex with many parameters interacting and changing in value over the short and long term. The results based on present models must surely be indicative only!

The climate has great influence on human activities like growing crops, building houses because of  temperature, precipitation, wind, flooding, local natural conditions etc….

Now climate modeling is developing as a science – including physics, chemistry, biology, meteorology, oceanography, glaciology and geology. An analysis of all the components of the climate system will include the atmosphere, oceans, ice sheets, solar activity, human activity etc. We wish to be able to understand the dominant causes of past climate changes and to critically evaluate the projections of the climate change over the next centuries or millennia.

Because of the complexity of the climate system we use models. Both comprehensive three-dimensional numerical models and simple models are used to show the fundamental properties of the climate, climate variability and climate change in order to estimate future climate.

The correct use of models is also important, e.g. extrapolation must only be done within the limits of what the models are designed for.

The number of parameters used is high and may be increasing? Cosmic radiation and the effect of the earth´s magnetic field seems to play a role. The effect varies with distance from the poles. The incidence of cosmic radiation seems to have increased significantly during the last millenia.

It must be obvious that this science is fresh. Models and results should therefore be used with moderation as we move along to better understanding. Is the IPCC putting more into them than they are worth? Who decides what is a good model? The question should be open to international open debate for a long time coming.

One important consideration is whether the change in climate due to CO2 may be much less than the IPCC has calculated.

It seems there is a strong probability that there is a negative warming trend so we must be careful. Research is suggesting answers to the phenomena, but the dynamics and natural variations seem to make firesure  conclusions difficult. But to be happy in the future we must worry now. At the same time we should avoid heated debate! Activists should let science take its course.

If you are interested in further reading about climate models: Goosse H., P.Y. Barriat, W. Lefebvre, M.F. Loutre and V. Zunz, date 11.11.2009, Introduction to climate dynamics and climate modeling. Online textbook available at http://www.climate.be/textbook.

See also: http://climateprediction.net/ for testing of climate models.