There is much noise in Copenhagen – but the evidence for a deal is mounting and the people that walked out came back. About 100 world leaders have been invited – they surely want to come back home with more than a mermaid souvenir.
Some elements are falling into place but needs further consideration:
- The countries that did not sign in Kyoto will now sign (very likely).
- The size of emission cuts must be found.
- The cost picture is emerging – spending a few percent of world output can do wonders. What to pay for each country is worse, but there must be a fund in there somewhere. International finance must help find solutions as well.
- Alignment between the rich and the less rich is difficult, but is crucial. The rich have so far made most of the mess we are in.
- Treaties must be made, including what to do at home, and local costs of the new practices, especially energy-efficiency and new forms of energy.
- International law and governing bodies must be put in place to ensure compliance.
- The technical side is emerging nicely: green companies are everywhere.
- Incentive mechanisms must be decided: carbon taxes, cap and trade systems, subsidies, national laws and regulations.
- Remember also: The IPCC must be accepted as the scientific source of information, and this means the IPCC itself must improve it’s debating technique relative to opponents. It must be clear that we are talking about probable outcomes with possible ranges. Scientific models must be made for such long term effects and reality will tell eventually.
If/when a deal is agreed upon in Copenhagen we can really move.