The audience is leaving the the theatre: the IPCC show is over, the CO2 problem is not so interesting any more. But nobody knows for sure what will happen now. The US may stop payments to the IPCC?
The basics of probability has been important: there is a hypothesis of global warming due to increased amounts of CO2 in the atmosphere, there is a probability that something is going to happen in 100 years, but this is impossible to say because climate models are complex, how are we going to measure this now and in the future – agreements on what factors matter is not there, time-series are required and they are not there either.
Strangely enough the scheme is supported by 90% of scientists, so how did this come about, where did it all originate?
CO2 is basically a harmless climate gas that is important for plant life and therefore an important systems component. Lots of people are now busy finding out to remove CO2 from the atmosphere. Please do not take it all away as that will make us die – plants first.
We need CO2 as part of the vital photosynthesis of plants, there are about 400 ppm in the air – a minute part of the air, and about 15 ppm resulting from human activity. CO2 capture will at best remove a fraction of the CO2, and the climatic result will be near zero. And maybe the effect of CO2 is decreasing with increasing temperature?
So next in line is watervapour, revision of climate models, new measurements of temperature, other factors – the turmoil is complete. The effect of vested interests are there too – who gets the money? Or maybe we are back to basics, to a gradual building of knowledge?
We are back to the sun, the clouds, sea temperature, global temperature, the Earth’s emission – it is all natural. Let us make an effort to understand it better – and better. It will take a long time and new understanding will emerge, gradually so we can make a better world.
The real agenda is much broader than climate only – to find and support the deeply ecological world – the cosmos – and make people and what we do part of it, supporting it. That would be nice!
