Climate warning models – we need a clear scientific lead.

We need models and figures to estimate the future of the climate. Predict and prevent!

The climate is the average of the weather in the last 30 years, and the variations can be large. Creating models that can foretell us the climate – in about 100 years time or more is important and necessary. Climate scenarios for the future must be developed and there will be large variations spurring debate. In an ideal world our politics should be based on research results.

CO2 figures for the air and the oceans must be measured. It now seems that the oceans are full in relation to CO2 and can only very slowly assimilate additional CO2.

The first IPCC report came in 2007, and the next report is coming in 2013. We know that the models must include influences from man-made emissions, the strength of the sun, volcanic activity, reduced oceanic CO2-ability, and possibly other factors.

We are talking of establishing historical records for climate, and using these records to project the future. Many countries in the world have few records, whereas others – India, Russia for example have  a lot. It also appears that times of severe climate change has led to severe conflicts, even destruction of civilizations. We have to find out more about these mechanisms – both what has been and what will come.

The sea levels is rising much faster today than was predicted only two years ago. It seems some climatic effects were neglected in the models used.

Severe dry conditions can adversely affect the balance of CO2 in the rainforests. The loss may be substantial and it could be neccessary to include this factor in future climate models.

A good book by Professor David J.C. MacKay with figures about climate and energy:  http://www.withouthotair.com/

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One Response to “Climate warning models – we need a clear scientific lead.”

  1. [...] Future thrills created an interesting post today on Climate warning models – we need a clear scientific lead.Here’s a short outlineWe need models and figures to estimate the future of the climate. The climate is the average of the weather in the last 30 years, and the variations can be large. Creating models that can foretell us the climate – in about 100 years time or more is important and necessary. Climate scenarios for the future must be developed and there will be large variations spurring debate. In an ideal world our politics should be based on research results. CO2 figures for the air and the oceans must be measured [...]

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